20210820 Missed Trade DAX T2 - Bear Market Trader
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20210820 Missed Trade DAX T2

20210820 Missed Trade DAX T2

Play: Weak­ness From With­in IBR, Devel­op­ing H4 DBD narrative

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

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Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

There was a D1 DBD the day before. H4, even though form­ing a Bull Engulf, showed no con­tin­u­a­tion high­er to the move. Instead there was an Evening Star and formed a Base fol­low­ing a Drop in pre­mar­ket. The expec­ta­tion is for a H4 DBD (Drop Base Drop) to form ie. today’s ses­sion will trade and close low­er. Although with­in the 4‑hour for­ma­tion of the can­dle there can be an expan­sion ie. mak­ing a LL fol­lowed by a con­trac­tion ie. pull­back, fol­lowed by anoth­er expan­sion till the close. Like a breath­ing motion 🙂

Price had opened above val­ue and pro­ceed­ed to accept val­ue in A (tra­vers­ing 0.93xASR dur­ing IB indi­cat­ing respon­sive activ­i­ty). With trend being up 2/3, open sen­ti­ment, LTF demand at VAL, as well as DAX being equi­ties the bias was for a reac­tion high­er. There was also a near­by W1 demand. 

After the ini­tial con­trac­tion to the devel­op­ing H4 DBD sup­ply con­ter­mi­nous line (base) as out­lined in T1 in the ear­li­er post. It was more like­ly for price to close low­er than it was to close above this devel­op­ing sup­ply line. 

This move came dur­ing 2nd DTTZ and was quite quick as moves often do dur­ing 2nd DTTZ in DAX. 

What hypo was it?

I had not writ­ten a Hypo for it but will include it lat­er. I did not want to include a con­trary move to the over­all the­sis but next time I will. 

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What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 2nd

Entry Method: M5 Three Out­side Down on a pull­back to devel­op­ing H4 Base Sup­ply lev­el coin­cid­ing with M30 QHi and M30 VWAP in DT.

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Tighter SL would be allowed just above the M5 for­ma­tion because if price would take out that for­ma­tion the the­sis would be negated.

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: 2R at M30 QLo.

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What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 2R tar­get would have been hit over­rul­ing the time-based exit. Oth­er­wise it would have been 1.1R

TAGS: Trend is UP 2/3, Above Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance, Devel­op­ing H4 DBD, 

Extra Obser­va­tions


Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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