20210907 Trade Review DAX - Bear Market Trader
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20210907 Trade Review DAX

20210907 Trade Review DAX

Play: Sus­tained Auction

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

Mar­ket Narrative

There was an open of 0.16xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range, Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. The day pri­or was a huge bull engulf exceed­ing ADR quite a bit by 1.75x. Expectan­cy is a retrace­ment of that move. When mar­ket opened in close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge a val­ue accep­tance is pos­si­ble. Although that’s not the entry cri­te­ria for today’s play. The entry cri­te­ria is the D1 Bull Engulf exceed­ing ADR nar­ra­tive so a sus­tained auc­tion down is expect­ed. Thus there is no need for price to accept val­ue first before enter­ing. Along these lines I wait­ed for a pull­back to M15 Sup­ply to go Short. There is also still a D1 Phase 1 / 3 going on. 

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What hypo was it?

Hypo 1

VAA, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, pre­ferred late-sus­tained auc­tion entry

Hypo was good. I nor­mal­ly wait for price to accept val­ue but under­stand­ing the D1 nar­ra­tive I wait­ed for a pull­back to get a bet­ter entry and R multiple. 

How was the Entry?

Entry was good. Not let­ting price action fool me to think val­ue is just get­ting probed and there might be a rever­sal instead. IBR was quite tight and price had extend­ed quite a bit to the down­side almost ful­ly rotat­ing through value. 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

A bit too tight. I placed a 1750 SL but I should’ve used a 2000 SL. My think­ing was to place it above IB in the case that IB gets extend­ed to the upside it would’ve inval­i­dat­ed my the­sis and thus it would’ve been valid to get tak­en out there. In hind­sight I real­ized that it was slight­ly too tight. 1) because it was less than the min­i­mum of 20 pips and 2) because my SL would have got­ten hit due to the spread dif­fer­ence in shorts with­out hav­ing extend­ed the IB to the upside. 

Nonethe­less it was this slight­ly tighter SL that caused me to reach a 2R tar­get with­in the trad­ing ses­sion. If not for this the trade would’ve retraced to my entry point for 2.5 hours before reach­ing 4.2R at the end of NY (lat­est cut off under cur­rent trad­ing rules). 

How was the prof­it target?

Prof­it tar­get was good as the entry was great and 2R would have not even need­ed a LL com­pared to the exten­sion in C. 

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How was the Exit?

2R tar­get reached in F.

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

0.9R at the close of G clos­ing as a Bull­ish Inside Bar but because it was still with­in val­ue I would not have tak­en the trade off. But as it tech­ni­cal­ly failed the auc­tion that could’ve been a PA-based exit. 

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What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

0.8R at nor­mal cut off, 0.1R at Over­lap noise cut off. End of Day cut off 4.2R.

What did I do well?

I did well to under­stand the D1 nar­ra­tive and let it over­rule the val­ue accep­tance nar­ra­tive and go for a sus­tained auc­tion down play. 

What could I have done better?

I could’ve had a bet­ter SL place­ment but then I would’ve seen the trade go against me which is okay. It still hit my tar­get lat­er on the day. Even went to 4.2R at the end of the day. 


Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR reversals. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty


TAGS: Above Val­ue, Out­side Range, Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance, Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR, Trend is UP 2/3,

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


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