20221213 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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13 Dec 20221213 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:03h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
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#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price trad­ing above body, back with­in range after hav­ing made a HH
  • W1
    • Price trad­ing below body, with­in range, below W1 QHi, at W1 50MA in R

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • Price trad­ed low­er form­ing a D1 Three Inside Down (base formed over the weekend)
    • Price trad­ing at D1 200MA, above D1 VWAP in UT
  • H4
    • Price con­tin­ued low­er giv­ing H4-C‑S 1791.294 (with­in val­ue, at PPOC)
    • Pre­mar­ket formed some demand above H4 QLo (no touch) giv­ing H4-C‑D 1781.935
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • 2 over­lap­ping values
  • LN Open
    • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 1.02
    • 0.10xASR below Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbalance
    • Asia trad­ed higher
    • 0.28xASR IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • Thurs­day, Dec 15, Inter­est Rate Decisions

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Return to Val­ue, Rever­sal, Pos­si­ble Failed Auction
  • Hypo 2
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 3
    • Long
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 4
    • Long
    • Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 1

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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juan l.

Good evening !! did you put your paja­mas on yet and drink your hot milk ? 

1. Larger/ Med TF were are in the mid­dle of Qpoints, Would you rely on Mar­ket pro­file and TPO’s alone to trade today ? or is there some­thing else you would incorporate.

2. How does CPI today affect how you trad­ing ? I feel that usu­al­ly the trad­ing range nar­rows for equi­ties, how does it affect Gold ?

3. apart from the trad­ing plan and jour­nal. Do you have a check­list you look at imme­di­ate­ly before enter­ing a trade ? or is it more discretionary ?

I feel­ing like hav­ing sautéed brains today please

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T3chAddict

Ha not quite yet. Could­n’t find a good trade so decid­ed to stay out today. Went to cook din­ner to sur­prise my gf instead.
1. Price action trumps every­thing. Today on Gold I was ready for a move high­er due to a pos­si­ble move high­er on H4, com­bined with a retrace­ment of D1 move down due to Prev. Day hav­ing exceed­ed ADR as well as Trend still being up 3/3. There was a M15 Bull Engulf that closed right at IB low, com­bined with a pos­si­ble base on M30 so decid­ed to stay out even though even­tu­al­ly price did move high­er Fail­ing the Auc­tion. It did so by first mak­ing a LL. Not the clear­est play. But yeah nor­mal­ly when price is in the mid­dle I take extra care but heav­i­ly rely on price action and mar­ket pro­file read­ing (which I actu­al­ly always do). But this all has to fit the trad­ing setups we have. If it does­n’t fit I back off. Not always. Some­times I have expe­ri­enced a cer­tain sce­nario before and trade off of that ie. discretionary.
2. CPI affects swing traders more than it does for us. I have not noticed specif­i­cal­ly that ranges get tighter because of CPI. There are also inter­est rate deci­sions com­ing up so. As long as it is wide enough for our strate­gies ie. prefer­ably more than 60 pip ASR or even bet­ter 80 pips we are still good to go. When ranges get tighter I find that M15/M30 com­bos don’t work as well so I rely more on M15/H1. But that is if you real­ly “need” to find a trade. Luck­i­ly Gold keeps good ranges through­out the year.
3. So the MS method is a sys­tem­at­ic trad­ing strat­e­gy. I believe we all use dis­cre­tion to a cer­tain extent. There are cer­tain sce­nar­ios that I know of that the MS method can­not account for. But this comes with expe­ri­ence. Hav­ing said that before I enter a trade I act on my trad­ing plan. I know what Price Action / Mar­ket pro­file com­bi­na­tions I wish to see. Which I do not include in my plans because you’d lose rigidy as well as put too much work in. I know, as you will after com­plet­ing the cours­es, what con­fir­ma­tion I am look­ing for to act on any hypo. Then I exe­cute. Then I mon­i­tor through OODA loops (which you will learn as well) if the trade is work­ing out. How­ev­er, more often than not I am cor­rect on the direc­tion­al bias of the ses­sion and mon­i­tor­ing too much can actu­al­ly hurt my bot­tom­line. So I try to give the trade time to do what it is sup­posed to do and am okay if I get stopped out. Yes­ter­day I was in a trade that almost got stopped out and I just let it. Went away. Saw to my sur­prise that it was near­ing my TP and I took it. You do not know which kind of trad­er you are until after you gain some expe­ri­ence with the strate­gies. For me it is more time-based. If it does­n’t work out in about an hour, hour and half I am look­ing for rea­sons to either stay with the trade or exit.
Please make sure your brains are still good to go through the courses 🙂

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