20221214 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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14 Dec 20221214 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:31h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
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#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price made a HH, trad­ing at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price made a HH test­ing Wide W1 QHi

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • Big D1 Bull Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑D 1794.648 HiDC at D1 200MA fail­ing to close with­in Wide W1/D1 QHi leav­ing a sell­ing wick
  • H4
    • Big H4 RBR clos­ing slight­ly above pre­vi­ous swing high although clos­ing with a sell­ing wick
    • Price slow­ing down below W1/D1 QHi
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous 
  • LN Open
    • Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR by 2.20
    • 1.27xASR Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Large to Huge Imbalance
    • Asia formed a Neu­tral Day trad­ing sideways
    • 0.22xASR Tight IBR

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • Inter­est rate deci­sions tomorrow

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 2
    • Long
    • Auc­tion Fade
  • Hypo 3
    • Long
    • Failed Auc­tion, pos­si­ble continuation
  • Hypo 4
    • Short
    • Rever­sal, Pos­si­ble Failed Auction

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 1

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay but will take it easy

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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juan l.

Good evening Lad,

New dynam­ic this week trig­gered by big events. In light of that

1. How is your analy­sis affect­ed when price move­ments are trig­gered by big events ?
2. Is that bull­ish engulf­ing with a large sell­ing wick indica­tive of a pos­si­ble short term pullback ?
The con­sol­i­da­tion below Q points on dif­fer­ent time frames leads me to believe so as long as the price action con­firms it. What are your thoughts ?
3. You said you use Kelt­ner chan­nels and i think i see them on your chart, how come you rarely men­tion them in your analysis ?
4. Is it worth trad­ing on Days with big impact news ?

Thank you for your answers in advance, Cheers mate.

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T3chAddict

Good morn­ing(?!)
1. It is not direct­ly, because I stay out when they come out. Every­thing else I am of the opin­ion I can see it fac­tored with­in the price. If not. I stay out. This does­n’t mean I do not believe in fun­da­men­tals in any­way. I do. How­ev­er, we all trade our believes in the end and I am more inclined to look at price pat­terns (unless there is a black swan event). When they are aligned with the mar­ket we trade. If not, we stay out. No mat­ter how­ev­er you came to your assump­tion. This assump­tion of course needs to be a valid strat­e­gy thus have edge. Luck­i­ly you are in the process of learn­ing such strategies 🙂
2. Not just that. Also the fact that the whole can­dle tra­versed 2.20xADR. When­ev­er price exceeds ADR there is usu­al­ly a rub­ber­band retrace­ment before con­tin­u­ing (if any). Anoth­er fac­tor were price not clos­ing wti­hin W1/D1 QHi.
3. I use Kelt­ner chan­nels as a sup­port­ing fac­tor if they hap­pen to coin­cide with oth­er lev­els that I am observing.
4. It depends. Usu­al­ly around days where there is an inter­est rate deci­sion price can be “wonky” in expec­ta­tion of it. When for exam­ple NFP comes around every 1st Fri­day of the month there can also be a dif­fer­ence in behav­iour even the day before. For exam­ple, I am less like­ly to go with a sus­tained auc­tion as I have found that on mul­ti­ple occa­sions price just dies down after a break of IB. So on those days if I do go with a SA I might wait for a Late-SA or watch price like a hawk. The moment price starts fal­ter­ing I am out.
Just keep em com­ing. Sur­prised your brain has­n’t melt­ed yet so that’s a good sign 🙂

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juan l.

My trad­ing jour­ney is do or die ( hence Do or die Mar­ket­stalk­er ) . I feel to that to make it in this type of career you need an extreme high lev­el of per­sis­tence, grit and curiosity.I have made life-chang­ing deci­sions the past year and i have giv­en myself no oth­er option but to learn how to trade con­sis­tent­ly and profitably.

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T3chAddict

Great to hear of your com­mit­ment. I have some­thing sim­i­lar on my desk star­ing at me to remind myself:

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