20221215 Premarket Prep Gold - Bear Market Trader
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15 Dec 20221215 Premarket Prep Gold

Posted at 10:03h in Gold, Gold Premarket Prep, Trading Plan by
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#Fin­twit #XAUUSD #GOLD #Mar­ket­Pro­file #Order­flow

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2022 Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Larg­er Timeframe

  • MN
    • Price made a HH and is trad­ing above body, out­side range, at MN VWAP
  • W1
    • Price made a HH test­ing W1 QHi and is trad­ing below body with­in range

Nar­ra­tive

  • D1
    • D1 Ham­mer formed below W1/D1 QHi, price cur­rent­ly prob­ing D1 Demand HiDC
    • D1 Demand End 1777.456 just above D1 VWAP in UT
    • Price trad­ing at D1 200MA
  • H4
    • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion below W1/D1/H4 QHi and break low­er clos­ing with­in D1 demand HiDC, cur­rent­ly test­ing Wide H4 QLo
  • Trend
    • Trend is UP 3/3
  • Mar­ket Profile 
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
  • LN Open
    • Prev. Day trad­ed 0.94xADR
    • 1.12xASR Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Large to Huge Imbalance
    • Asia trad­ed lower
    • ADR got exhaust­ed in premarket
    • 1.01xASR Wide IBR tak­ing out D1 Demand End

Addi­tion­al Notes

  • Inter­est Rate Deci­sions today

Hypos

  • Hypo 1
    • Long
    • Failed Auc­tion
  • Hypo 2
    • Short
    • Weak­ness From With­in IBR (for­ward-test rever­sal with­in IBR)
  • Hypo 3
    • Short
    • Late-Sus­tained Auction
  • Hypo 4
    • Long
    • Auc­tion Fade

Clar­i­ty / Con­fi­dence (1 — 5, low to high)

  • 2

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay, but tak­ing it easy

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals 
    • Use SL scaling

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

5 Comments
  • juan l.
    Posted at 12:30h, 15 December

    Good evening Lad,

    So I am final­ly at the mar­ket pro­file sec­tion and things are start­ing to make alot more sense now. 

    Based on what i learned ( so far ). This is how i would frame my bias.
    1. Week­ly : Qhi reject­ed twice + bear­ish can­dle pattern
    2.Daily: Q hi reject­ed pre­vi­ous two days
    3. 4Hr ; con­sol­i­da­tion with sev­er­al sell wicks reject­ing W/D Qhi and yes­ter­day reject­ing H4 Qhi fin­ish­ing last night with a bear­ish engulfing.
    4. Lon­don opens low­er out­side of Range/ Val­ue ( large imbal­ance ? , i haven’t used ADR/ASR but im guessing )
    5. Lon­don ses­sion IB breaks down on C peri­od. D peri­od con­tin­ues down.
    6. Nor­mal / Nor­mal vari­a­tion day , Enter Short Sus­tained auc­tion at end of D peri­od , Stop loss D peri­od can­dle open
    7. Take prof­it tar­get: H4 Qlo area ( look­ing left no oppos­ing demand.)
    8. pos­si­ble TP outcomes:
    A. 3:1 R/R
    B. TPO prints 4 let­ters in a row
    C. TPO clos­es back into IB short­ly after mean­ing idea is inval­i­dat­ed and trade is closed ( pos­si­ble failed auc­tion play ? )
    D. time based exit ( Lon­don lunch time) if price just wanders.

    every­thing in hind­sight is easy, but i want my thought process to align with the method.

    Is this thought process accept­able ? let me know. Thanks !

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 13:32h, 15 December

    1. Tech­ni­cal­ly W1 QHi has not been reject­ed athough it seems to be reac­tive. The move in August came close though. But this is in hind­sight as at that time this move actu­al­ly tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ed W1 QLo. WHich you can’t see right now unless you use the back­test option by press­ing “B” on your key­board. Then press and hold “con­trol” to go back to the time. Fur­ther­more there is no CONFIRMED bear­ish can­dle pat­tern as last week could be a base and this week has not yet closed no mat­ter how bear­ish the devel­op­ment might be at the moment. So stay sharp on that.
    2. Same as point one as today has not yet closed. Pre­vi­ous move did not touch it. Cur­rent­ly we have a devel­op­ing can­dle that seems to be react­ing and that took out D1 demand HiDC which is not a good bull­ish sign of course. But still. Price has not closed yet.
    3. Correct
    4. Correct
    5. I don’t know what chart you are look­ing at but today IB did not get bro­ken. We are now in the I TPO and still no break of IB. If you mean that IB tra­versed down then yes that’s correct.
    6. Since num­ber 5 is incor­rect I have no com­ment to this one.
    7. I think you are mak­ing the mis­take to trade the IB which is a BIG NO NO. The first hour of trad­ing ie. A and B TPO are the ini­tial bal­ance a.ka. the first hour of trad­ing a.k.a stay the F out. You should not be trad­ing with­in the first hour. I repeat. No trades with­in the first hour. Let me say that once again. NO TRADES in the first hour 🙂
    What we have right now is a wide Ini­tial Bal­ance Range (IBR aka IB) and price has not even attempt­ed to break IBR at the moment I write this. The impli­ca­tions of a Wide IBR is that any sus­tained auc­tion is less like­ly hence a Failed Auc­tion is more prob­a­ble. Usu­al­ly a Failed Auc­tion has a tar­get to the oppos­ing side of IB but due to this being a Wide IBR this is not fea­si­ble (if in case this actu­al­ly occurred, which today it did not). On days like this it is best to stay out unless you have break of IB to guide your deci­sions. Some­times you can find a LTF SD zone of which you can trade off. I’d say this is more advanced so stick to learn­ing the basics first.
    I do have a set­up that allows for trad­ing dur­ing the IB in cer­tain cas­es but again this is an advanced play that requires expe­ri­ence. You should first learn the sys­tem­at­ic approach before you go wan­der­ing off the reservation 🙂

  • juan l.
    Posted at 16:11h, 15 December

    XAU/USD on MT5 Metaquotes Demo has the tim­ing wrong. That why I had trou­ble look­ing at the MP !!!

    same instur­ment on dif­fer­ent plat­forms is caus­ing issues for me. What plat­form do you trade gold on ?

  • T3chAddict
    Posted at 16:26h, 15 December

    It could be that your indi­ca­tor does not start at the right time and that’s why you are see­ing it wrong. Check your indi­ca­tor to see if it is set cor­rect­ly. Oth­er­wise you might have to use the off­set but­ton. Try chang­ing it to 3600 to account for 1 hour time difference.

  • juan l.
    Posted at 17:06h, 15 December

    Thank you. much better

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