24 May How did I trade today? 20210524
Summary: Late opportunistic trade fading the auction
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Fair Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2
Comment: Initially I had given myself a BAD review for trade selection for not taking that 1st trade. Then I bumped it up a bit for taking that trade late into the session.
- 1st DTTZ
- IB traded lower but leaving longer buying wicks
- C extended one TPO above IB but closed move down testing IB low with no extension to the other side
- Price is trading mid M30/M5 swing and thus I find it harder to get into a trade. Also the swing isn’t very big and PA contradictory.
- There was a M5 Inverted Hammer at M5 QHi, M30 Supply that I considered for an entry but it was an incomplete formation. Then when M5 Three Outside Down came it wasn’t very confident plus M15 had just formed a slight Bull Engulf (which in hindsight was actually a consolidation) so I decided to let the trade go. As I write this the trade would have been at 0.5R and M15 closed as a Bear Engulf.
- Traded continued lower forming a Neutral Day and trade hit 1.2R taking out LTF/H4 demand and it looks there might be a continuation to it.
- 2nd DTTZ
- Price continued lower testing H4-C‑D 1.96743
- I was finishing up my DRC but then I saw M5 faltering at H4 demand plus formed a Bull Engulf (within M30 QLo) late into the session, plus a Neutral Day going to try and fade the auction here with IB low as a target.
- Long 1.96920 SL 1.96678 TP 1.97428 (2R) 1.97048 (0.5R)at IB edge
- Downside the Poor Low
- M15 Closed as a possible consolidation
- H TPO close as an Inside Bar M15 consolidation (through a Doji with very slightly longer buying wick) continued letting it go for another 15 minutes, Although H4 closing as a Three Inside Down is not a good sign. Committing to the trade though. Thinking there might be some pull back.
- M5 demand created above followed with another M5 Bull Engulf closing in newly formed M5 Supply. Monitoring for popping of said supply and M15 closing higher to potentially consider letting it go another 15 minutes if M15 closes as a RBR. It did close as a RBR but very flimsy… watching like a hawk for M5 to show a sign of weakness to get out.
- Price testing TPO structure high where there is one single print of G whe if taken out price could potentially see a continuation.
- Just took it out and look for IB low but there is another little structure right there….
- Took 0.2R profit which I am happy with… Kinda. I did well to take the trade and sticking with it. Although I was visualizing what I wanted to see I decided to take some profit here. Progress, not perfection. Now I’ll sit here and probably watch the trade go hit my intended target.
- 1st DTTZ
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market / Value Rejection Failure
- Narrative: Open sentiment, bracketing range
- Preferred: Play off LTF SD or ADR levels, possibly at H4‑C‑D 1.96743 (M30 QLo), ADR 0.5 High above Value, slightly above range within M30 QHi
- Con: Possible H4 Phase 1 / 3 there could be a value rejection instead
- 100% correct
What happened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Price traded lower before then extending above IB and forming a LTF reversal at M5 QH and M30 Supply at MN-C‑S 1.97330.
What happened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Price then proceeded to continue below IB forming a Neutral Day taking out LTF/H4 demand. Possibly attempting a Value Rejection Down as per Hypo 2.
What was the play of the day?
Balancing Market Play
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes, I was
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity but I did not take it. I thought the M5 reversal pattern wasn’t very confident as well as the opposite swing not providing much of a profit target. I was wrong.
EDIT: towards the end of the session I noticed M5 faltering at H4 demand and closing with a M5 Bull Engulf so I decided to go long. I expected for price to transition into a M15 RBR and then a M30 Three Inside Up reaching for IB low
Entry: M5 Bull Engulf, entry could have been slightly better as I hesitated a little due to checking if SL placement would have been good. Not the worst though.
Profit Margin (ADR or congestion): Fading the Auction to IB low would have yielded 0.5R
What would a price action exit rule have done?
M5 Three Inside Down would have yielded ‑0.2R
How was SL placement and Sizing?
SL placement was good as it was the standard size and below formation.
What would time-based have done?
M30 I TPO closed as a slight Three Inside Up but still below entry and would yielded ‑0.2R
What could I have done better?
I could have taken the trade even though I didn’t find the pattern confident. Trade location was good but I was a bit thrown off by M15/M30 contradicting PA. Combined with a possible H4 Phase 3 at MN Supply there was more of a probability for price to move down.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
Kinda feeling bummed for not having taken the first opportunity. Learned again though. Feel good for taking that 2nd opportunistic trade and being in the thick of monitoring through OODA. Felt good.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well here
What did I learn today?
That I should trust my instinct and take trades accordingly. So often am I right and at least I could have gotten a buffer trade out of it.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Stay observant of market narrative
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Chicken out on potential trading ideas. EDIT: I did well to take that last trade and just jump in. Then I did really well to monitor through OODA loops and visualizing what I wanted to see. Then I did not so well to take profits too soon but being in overlap noise time I think I did okay to just pocket some profits. Plus without any TPO structure and a Poor Low I (as well as newly formed H4 Three Inside Down) I thought the trade to be a bit risky.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
At first I thought I did poorly but then I saw an opportunistic trade and I went for it so it kinda made up for it. But to address the point that I felt not having done well has got to do with the fact I didn’t capitalize on that first opportunity even though I was stalking it. I started feeling am I just hesitating here or what? I feel that the balancing market play is something I used to do well but only recently am making it a conscious effort to trade them with good money on the line. So I am going to follow my own voice and say that it is okay for not taking trades if I am not feeling confident. At the same time I need to keep in mind that rarely will there be a clean cut confident opportunity and I should push myself to take more trades. HOWEVER…. Having said that… there is a time and place for everything… If I had more buffer trades in earlier this month I might have been thinking differently about taking that trade. Only way to find out is focusing on those buffer trades and then see if I am willing to take more risks. My bet is I will. Always bet on yourself my friend. Always.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: