14 May Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210514
Play: Trend Continuation / Return to Value
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #GBPNZD #missedtrade
These are trades I could have taken but for some reason I did not. This could be due to me not paying attention or simply not feeling like trading. This is usually the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, personal issues, etc.
Reason for missing the trade (explain the narrative)
I was preoccupied taking a delivery and when I came back to my desk the move was happening. I decided that I did not want to take a trade that I wasn’t stalking (even though I hypothesized the play) and decided to wait for another late-sustained auction entry. I deduced there was a chance for it if H4 demand got popped price could see some pullback to IB low. This did not happen due to the medium/high initiative activity day. This made me switch to a forward testing mode where I have seen similar circumstances where a TPO structure ‘edge’ to the opposing side can be used as a late-sustained auction entry’ with the direction of the move. Which I will discuss here.
What would have been the Entry?
Entry Method: IB extension during C TPO (M30 Three Outside Down forming)
Trade 2 — Medium/High Initiative Day Late-Sustained Auction Entry
DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ (F)
Entry Method: Medium/High Initiative Activity Day sustained auction taking out H4 demand creating a pullback to TPO structure build edge in the opposing direction. A Sell Limit Order could have been placed here.
Odds enhancer: D1 Inside Bar, D1 UKC in R, W1 Supply, D1 Supply, H4 Demand Popped, Medium Initiative Activity, High Initiative Activity, Mixed Trend, 0.5xASR, Below Value, Outside Range, M30 Three Outside Down, Momentum Trade, TPO Structure, IB extension Entry, Sell Stop Order, Stop Order, Sustained Auction, Late-Sustained Auction Entry, TPO Structure Edge, Pullback, Sell Limit Order, Limit Order, H4 Phase 3, H4 Phase 4,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
SL placement: Good because of the momentum nature of the move it is okay if it cuts through the formation.
SL placement: Standard size SL would have been invalidated if Profile would start taking out the Single Prints in C (although some room should be left to let the market do what it does so this should preferably be accompanied perhaps with a PA confirmation or a failed auction)
How was the profit target?
Profit target: After taking out H4 demand there was not much congestion in the way so 2R would theoretically easily be possible.
Profit target: same as Trade 1 and with a sustained auction could even stretch into overlap noise and potentially beyond (ie Swing Trade coming from a D1 trading location although this is something I need to research further as I am mostly an intraday trader)
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
Exit: 0.5R (M30 Three Outside Up), 1.2R (M15 Bullish Inside Bar), 1.4R (depending on risk appetite)
Exit: 0.7R (M15 Bullish Inside Bar),
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
Exit: 0.7R, 1R, overlap noise (I), 2.2R (J)
Price trading at D1 UKC in R combined with W1/D1 supply plus extension from VWAP makes for a higher probability trade short.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day