Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210514 - Bear Market Trader
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Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210514

Missed Trade GBPNZD 20210514

Play: Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

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Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

I was pre­oc­cu­pied tak­ing a deliv­ery and when I came back to my desk the move was hap­pen­ing. I decid­ed that I did not want to take a trade that I wasn’t stalk­ing (even though I hypoth­e­sized the play) and decid­ed to wait for anoth­er late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. I deduced there was a chance for it if H4 demand got popped price could see some pull­back to IB low. This did not hap­pen due to the medium/high ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. This made me switch to a for­ward test­ing mode where I have seen sim­i­lar cir­cum­stances where a TPO struc­ture ‘edge’ to the oppos­ing side can be used as a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry’ with the direc­tion of the move. Which I will dis­cuss here. 

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: IB exten­sion dur­ing C TPO (M30 Three Out­side Down forming)

Trade 2 — Medium/High Ini­tia­tive Day Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entry

DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ (F)

Entry Method: Medium/High Ini­tia­tive Activ­i­ty Day sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 demand cre­at­ing a pull­back to TPO struc­ture build edge in the oppos­ing direc­tion. A Sell Lim­it Order could have been placed here.

Odds enhancer: D1 Inside Bar, D1 UKC in R, W1 Sup­ply, D1 Sup­ply, H4 Demand Popped, Medi­um Ini­tia­tive Activ­i­ty, High Ini­tia­tive Activ­i­ty, Mixed Trend, 0.5xASR, Below Val­ue, Out­side Range, M30 Three Out­side Down, Momen­tum Trade, TPO Struc­ture, IB exten­sion Entry, Sell Stop Order, Stop Order, Sus­tained Auc­tion, Late-Sus­tained Auc­tion Entry, TPO Struc­ture Edge, Pull­back, Sell Lim­it Order, Lim­it Order, H4 Phase 3, H4 Phase 4, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Good because of the momen­tum nature of the move it is okay if it cuts through the formation. 

Trade 2

SL place­ment: Stan­dard size SL would have been inval­i­dat­ed if Pro­file would start tak­ing out the Sin­gle Prints in C (although some room should be left to let the mar­ket do what it does so this should prefer­ably be accom­pa­nied per­haps with a PA con­fir­ma­tion or a failed auction) 

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: After tak­ing out H4 demand there was not much con­ges­tion in the way so 2R would the­o­ret­i­cal­ly eas­i­ly be possible. 

Trade 2

Prof­it tar­get: same as Trade 1 and with a sus­tained auc­tion could even stretch into over­lap noise and poten­tial­ly beyond (ie Swing Trade com­ing from a D1 trad­ing loca­tion although this is some­thing I need to research fur­ther as I am most­ly an intra­day trader)

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 0.5R (M30 Three Out­side Up), 1.2R (M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar), 1.4R (depend­ing on risk appetite)

Trade 2

Exit: 0.7R (M15 Bull­ish Inside Bar), 

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 1.3R

Trade 2

Exit: 0.7R, 1R, over­lap noise (I), 2.2R (J)

Extra Obser­va­tions

Price trad­ing at D1 UKC in R com­bined with W1/D1 sup­ply plus exten­sion from VWAP makes for a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty trade short. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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