30 Apr Missed Trade Gold 20210429
Play: Mean Reversion to Return to Value
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #XAUUSD #Gold #missedtrade
These are trades I could have taken but for some reason I did not. This could be due to me not paying attention or simply not feeling like trading. This is usually the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, personal issues, etc.
Reason for missing the trade
End of the month. Plus C TPO closing as a Marubozu I expected a stronger move down. When this did not happen I got a bit weary to enter around the close as price was still trading at this level. I decided I wanted a better entry level so I placed a Sell Limit Order slightly above the round number at 1778.52. Although if I had put the order right at xx.50 or slight below I would have been filled. Progress. Not perfection.
Price did not trigger the order and proceeded to form a speedbump on the M15 before continuing down. This M15 speedbump coincided with a M30 Hammer forming a Base in a DBD formation. This could have been another nod in the intended direction.
I went to the gym to get a workout in as I had decided not to trade this day even though I thought a reversal could come in the form of a Return to Value play. Which it did.
At 2nd DTTZ there was a reversal and even though a LTF entry would have been allowed I didn’t find enough comforting supporting facts on the M30 or M15 as well as profile to go in long. When there was enough to go on it was at the close of H TPO and going into overlap noise I would have found this risky anyway.
What would have been the Entry?
Trade 1
DTTZ: 1st
Entry Method: IB extension down would have sufficed, otherwise a slightly better entry on the M15 speedbump which for the few ticks might not have been worth it. Something that I could focus on when leveling up to an elite trader. Basics first.
Trade 2
DTTZ: 2nd (although late)
Entry Method: M5 Bull Engulf/M30 Bullish Inside Bar combo
Odds enhancer: Mean Reversion, Above Value, Outside Range, 0.8xASR, M30 VWAP in UT BD to CAR, Marubozu, low/medium initiative activity, speedbump, M15 consolidation, H4 Bear Engulf, D1 QHi, trend is up, Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3, Mean Reversion to Return to Value, Return to Value, M5 bull engulf, M30 Bullish Inside Bar, dragonfly doji,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
Trade 1
SL placement: On IB extension the SL placement would have cut through the formation although being a momentum trade this would have been okay. A slightly better entry off M15 speedbump would have been perfect.
Trade 2
SL placement: a standard sized SL placement would have been great
How was the profit target?
Trade 1
Profit target: This is where I worried as well a bit. I gathered coming from a H4 Bear ENgulf closing below D1 QHi premarket could show more follow-through to the move although with the trend being up and open above value (even on large imbalance) there could be a reaction in the form of a Return to Value play. Nevertheless this entry would have yielded 1.5R at max with price-action based a little over 1R.
Trade 2
Profit target: Back to IB low would have yielded less then 1R although could monitor for a failed auction and follow-through to IB high if this happened early in the session.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
Trade 1
Exit: 1.1R
Trade 2
Exit: Probably would have taken it off at the end of I TPO at 0.7R
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
Trade 1
Exit: 1R
Trade 2
Exit: 0.7R
Extra Observations
M30 VWAP in UT BD to CAR would have been a great odds enhancer for the mean reversion trade, especially coupled with a H4 bear engulfing premarket of which newly formed c‑sup got tested in a 2nd chance entry off the open through a M30 Bull Engulf to Dragonfly Doji to Evening Star formation.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day
