Missed Trade Gold 20210429 - Bear Market Trader
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Missed Trade Gold 20210429

Missed Trade Gold 20210429

Play: Mean Rever­sion to Return to Value

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #XAUUSD #Gold #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade

End of the month. Plus C TPO clos­ing as a Marubozu I expect­ed a stronger move down. When this did not hap­pen I got a bit weary to enter around the close as price was still trad­ing at this lev­el. I decid­ed I want­ed a bet­ter entry lev­el so I placed a Sell Lim­it Order slight­ly above the round num­ber at 1778.52. Although if I had put the order right at xx.50 or slight below I would have been filled. Progress. Not perfection.

Price did not trig­ger the order and pro­ceed­ed to form a speed­bump on the M15 before con­tin­u­ing down. This M15 speed­bump coin­cid­ed with a M30 Ham­mer form­ing a Base in a DBD for­ma­tion. This could have been anoth­er nod in the intend­ed direction. 

I went to the gym to get a work­out in as I had decid­ed not to trade this day even though I thought a rever­sal could come in the form of a Return to Val­ue play. Which it did. 

At 2nd DTTZ there was a rever­sal and even though a LTF entry would have been allowed I didn’t find enough com­fort­ing sup­port­ing facts on the M30 or M15 as well as pro­file to go in long. When there was enough to go on it was at the close of H TPO and going into over­lap noise I would have found this risky anyway. 

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: IB exten­sion down would have suf­ficed, oth­er­wise a slight­ly bet­ter entry on the M15 speed­bump which for the few ticks might not have been worth it. Some­thing that I could focus on when lev­el­ing up to an elite trad­er. Basics first.

Trade 2

DTTZ: 2nd (although late)

Entry Method: M5 Bull Engulf/M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar combo

Odds enhancer: Mean Rever­sion, Above Val­ue, Out­side Range, 0.8xASR, M30 VWAP in UT BD to CAR, Marubozu, low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty, speed­bump, M15 con­sol­i­da­tion, H4 Bear Engulf, D1 QHi, trend is up, Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3, Mean Rever­sion to Return to Val­ue, Return to Val­ue, M5 bull engulf, M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar, drag­on­fly doji, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: On IB exten­sion the SL place­ment would have cut through the for­ma­tion although being a momen­tum trade this would have been okay. A slight­ly bet­ter entry off M15 speed­bump would have been perfect. 

Trade 2

SL place­ment: a stan­dard sized SL place­ment would have been great

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: This is where I wor­ried as well a bit. I gath­ered com­ing from a H4 Bear ENgulf clos­ing below D1 QHi pre­mar­ket could show more fol­low-through to the move although with the trend being up and open above val­ue (even on large imbal­ance) there could be a reac­tion in the form of a Return to Val­ue play. Nev­er­the­less this entry would have yield­ed 1.5R at max with price-action based a lit­tle over 1R.

Trade 2

Prof­it tar­get: Back to IB low would have yield­ed less then 1R although could mon­i­tor for a failed auc­tion and fol­low-through to IB high if this hap­pened ear­ly in the session. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 1.1R

Trade 2

Exit: Prob­a­bly would have tak­en it off at the end of I TPO at 0.7R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 1R

Trade 2

Exit: 0.7R

Extra Obser­va­tions

M30 VWAP in UT BD to CAR would have been a great odds enhancer for the mean rever­sion trade, espe­cial­ly cou­pled with a H4 bear engulf­ing pre­mar­ket of which new­ly formed c‑sup got test­ed in a 2nd chance entry off the open through a M30 Bull Engulf to Drag­on­fly Doji to Evening Star formation. 

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Dai­ly Report Card on the day


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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