Missed Trade Gold 20210503

04 May Missed Trade Gold 20210503

Play: Return to Value

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #Gold #XAUUSD #missed­trade

These are trades I could have tak­en but for some rea­son I did not. This could be due to me not pay­ing atten­tion or sim­ply not feel­ing like trad­ing. This is usu­al­ly the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, per­son­al issues, etc.

Rea­son for miss­ing the trade (explain the narrative)

There was a H4 Marubozu can­dle pre­mar­ket com­ing from H4 LKC in R. Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3 trad­ing above D1 VWAP in UT. The nar­ra­tive was a H4 Pull­back to Return to Val­ue and con­tin­u­a­tion higher. 

I was stalk­ing the trade but visu­al­ized a M30 Bull Engulf rever­sal which didn’t come. Instead there was an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick although clos­ing with­in IB. When going through OODA loops I saw a flim­sy M15 Three Out­side Up and decid­ed to let the trade go as price had extend­ed below IB in an ini­tial Mean Rever­sion setup. 

What would have been the Entry?

Trade 1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry Method: A Flim­sy M15 Three Out­side Up at LTF demand with near­by H4 C‑dem, D1 C‑dem, and VAH. Even an entry lat­er on with a Flim­sy M30 Three Inside Up would have yield­ed some prof­its but I don’t think I would have tak­en that either. I’ll for­ward-test the entry.

Odds enhancer: M15 Three Out­side Up, M30 Three Inside Up, LTF demand, H4 C‑dem, D1 C‑dem, VAH, return to val­ue, M30 Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick, Mean Rever­sion to Return to Val­ue, failed auc­tion, H4 Marubozu, marubozu, H4 LKC in R, Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3, D1 VWAP in UT, H4 pull­back, pull­back, pull­back to return to value, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

Trade 1

SL place­ment: Stan­dard sized SL place­ment would have been below the PA for­ma­tion and thus acceptable

How was the prof­it target?

Trade 1

Prof­it tar­get: IB edge high would have yield­ed about 1.5R. Then form­ing a Neu­tral Day in H the trade went to 1.8R.

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: M15 Bear Engulf in H (coin­cid­ing with time-based exit) would have yield­ed 0.5R. Although due to the time of day a M5 Evening Star could have been a good exit as well yield­ing 1.3R.

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

Trade 1

Exit: 0.5R

Extra Obser­va­tions

I did well to stay out on the pos­si­ble mean rever­sion trade as trend was up and a return to val­ue play would have been safer com­bin­ing the open sen­ti­ment as well as H4/D1 c‑dem at VAH.

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210503

Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210503

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram