04 May Missed Trade Gold 20210503
Play: Return to Value
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #tradingreview #priceaction #chartreview #Gold #XAUUSD #missedtrade
These are trades I could have taken but for some reason I did not. This could be due to me not paying attention or simply not feeling like trading. This is usually the case when I am not in the right state of mind due to lack of sleep, personal issues, etc.
Reason for missing the trade (explain the narrative)
There was a H4 Marubozu candle premarket coming from H4 LKC in R. Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3 trading above D1 VWAP in UT. The narrative was a H4 Pullback to Return to Value and continuation higher.
I was stalking the trade but visualized a M30 Bull Engulf reversal which didn’t come. Instead there was an Inside Bar with longer selling wick although closing within IB. When going through OODA loops I saw a flimsy M15 Three Outside Up and decided to let the trade go as price had extended below IB in an initial Mean Reversion setup.
What would have been the Entry?
Entry Method: A Flimsy M15 Three Outside Up at LTF demand with nearby H4 C‑dem, D1 C‑dem, and VAH. Even an entry later on with a Flimsy M30 Three Inside Up would have yielded some profits but I don’t think I would have taken that either. I’ll forward-test the entry.
Odds enhancer: M15 Three Outside Up, M30 Three Inside Up, LTF demand, H4 C‑dem, D1 C‑dem, VAH, return to value, M30 Inside Bar with longer selling wick, Mean Reversion to Return to Value, failed auction, H4 Marubozu, marubozu, H4 LKC in R, Possible D1 Phase 1 / 3, D1 VWAP in UT, H4 pullback, pullback, pullback to return to value,
How was the SL placement and sizing?
SL placement: Standard sized SL placement would have been below the PA formation and thus acceptable
How was the profit target?
Profit target: IB edge high would have yielded about 1.5R. Then forming a Neutral Day in H the trade went to 1.8R.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
Exit: M15 Bear Engulf in H (coinciding with time-based exit) would have yielded 0.5R. Although due to the time of day a M5 Evening Star could have been a good exit as well yielding 1.3R.
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
I did well to stay out on the possible mean reversion trade as trend was up and a return to value play would have been safer combining the open sentiment as well as H4/D1 c‑dem at VAH.
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day