Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210222

22 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210222

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price retraced to new­ly formed W1 C‑Dem and W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.92730
  • H4 Phase 4 then con­sol­i­da­tion at D1-C‑D 1.91600 before tak­ing out new­ly formed H4 demand and slight con­tin­u­a­tion down — no arrival at W1-C‑D 1.91185
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Inside Bar above D1-C‑D 1.91185 and H4 QLo
• Mixed Trend: H4 Down, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Over­lap­ping brack­ets with Fri­day hav­ing cre­at­ed a wider val­ue area
  • ADR: 1255
  • ASR: 929
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93800
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91658

SSen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.92730 is with­in val­ue just above POC and ADR exhaus­tion / 0.5 high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Not quite at mean rever­sion unless we could duck below D1 c‑dem before revers­ing. With a huge D1 Bear Engulf (tak­ing prof­it on Fri­day) and larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment still, we could prob­a­bly see a retest of new­ly formed D1 C‑sup.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 price fal­ter­ing at D1 C‑dem and H4 QLo clos­ing as an inside bar pre­mar­ket we could see a push high­er form­ing a H4 Three Inside Up.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action tak­ing out LTF sup­plies, IB exten­sion up accept­ing val­ue, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: some new H4 sup­ply above 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 phase 4 continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly move to val­ue edge with bear­ish price action rever­sal either fail­ing auc­tion or with­in IB range. 
  • Con: in line with Friday’s move plus larg­er time­frame sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94113
• D1-C‑S 1.92730

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.91600
• W1-C‑D 1.91185

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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