Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210521

21 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210521

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a HH trad­ing with­in W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 pulled back towards D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE lev­el but closed high­er form­ing a Ham­mer deep­er with­in D1 Sup­ply and D1 QHi then pro­ceed­ed to take out D1 Supply
  • H4 Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.96738 with RBR clos­ing with­in old H4 sup­ply that was test­ed mul­ti­ple times
  • Trad­ing deep­er with­in H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1218
  • ASR: 904
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94221
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96131

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.96738 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.8xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed mak­ing HHs tak­ing out D1 Supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Pre­mar­ket: Although trad­ing right into W1/MN sup­ply price action seems to sup­port a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er for the moment. D1 Sup­ply got tak­en out dur­ing Asia is sup­port­ing this thesis.
    • Large Imbal­ance. With price tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er as this would be along the larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 RBR. With H4-C‑D 1.96738 at VAH that would be the safest trade loca­tion although with the open sen­ti­ment 0.8xASR above val­ue out­side range there could be a mean rever­sion first.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up on momen­tum, oth­er­wise a move to LTF demand above VAH to failed auc­tion (in case of an exten­sion down)
  • Con: trad­ing with­in W1 Supply
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, W1 sup­ply, Asia trad­ed higher
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: D1 Bull­ish sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• W1-C‑S 1.96840

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96738
• D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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