02 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 02022021
GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focusing on Gold today.
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless there are multiple conditions met
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Trading within last week’s spinning top
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 indecisive close although traded higher but left a longer selling wick behind
- H4 Phase 3 with bear engulf and price action leaving behind lots of wicks, price trading at H4 QHi having closed below
- Big drop after H4 phase 3 premarket with clean arrival at H4 C‑dem although price is trading mid (H4/D1) swing.
- Market Profile
- 2‑day bracketing range with tighter value created around VAH
- ADR: 26626
- ASR: 20267
- Yesterday’s High 1871.680
- Yesterday’s Low 1849.040
- H4-C‑D 1848.932 just above ADR 0.5 low
- H4-C‑S 1858.434 at VAL
- LN open
- Below Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- Moderate to Large Imbalance. With nearby H4 C‑dem we might see some reaction or push back to the drop premarket. With H4 C‑sup at VAL a return to value would be a great opportunity although we might see a continuation.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Asia down, Open sentiment, H4 C‑dem, larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- Con: early in the week for weighing on the larger timeframe sentiment.
- Preferred: A move further down to W1 C‑dem followed by a failed auction or if within IB strong bullish reversal pattern, extension up with sustained auction. Although ADR exhaustion is right there so be cautious. Monitor for value acceptance.
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value
- Narrative: H4 C‑sup at VAL
- Con: N.A.
- Preferred: price action reversal at said level, failed auction or TPO structure buildup.
- Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: D1 indecisive formation below D12 VWAP, H4 Phase 3 transition into 4
- Con: clean arrival at H4 demand, nearby W1 C‑dem
- Preferred: IB extension down taking out LTF demands with sustained auction exhausting ADR.
- Con: less likelihood of a unidirectional move as it’s the first week of February.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1889.101
- H4-C‑S 1858.434
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1848.932
- W1-C‑D 1838.170
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING