03 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 02032021
GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focusing on Gold today.
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless there are multiple conditions met
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Trading below last week’s spinning top testing W1 C‑dem below
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Bear Engulf giving D1-C‑S 1855.789 closing at W1/D1 demand, multiple tests of underlying demand
- Mid D1 swing
- H4 Inside Bar transition to RBR (giving H4-C‑D 1836.705 BASE) formed above H4 QLo (at H4 LKC in R) with Base level formed below W1 C‑dem
- Premarket: H4 closed retracing back to H4 Base level closing as a bear engulf indicating a possibility for more downside.
- Market Profile
- Value created below previous day’s value but still within overall range
- ADR: 29019
- ASR: 21379
- Yesterday’s High 1863.990
- Yesterday’s Low 1829.510
- W1-C‑D 1838.170 below VAL within range
- LN open
- Below Value, Within Range
- Open distance to value
- Moderate Imbalance. With an open below value and H4 Bearing Inside Bar we could see more downside or potentially a H4 consolidation. A value acceptance could negate this premise and we’d be looking for a H4 RBR after a retest of W1/D1 C‑dem.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Due to D1 Bear Engulf (and multiple tests of underlying demand) plus open sentiment we could see a test of value edge and continuation down as we have also returned to H4 base level (already a M30 Bear Engulf below VAL premarket).
- Preferred: Failure to accept value with bearish price action reversal at VAL. IB extension down with sustained auction taking out LTF demand.
- Con: trading directly into demand
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: a value acceptance would negate hypo 1 and continue on the H4 RBR premise as a possible retracement to newly formed D1 C‑sup of the Bear Engulfing. Price is also near H4 QLo.
- Preferred: Early acceptance with quick follow-through although some H4 demand is created so would be looking at low/medium initiative activity day.
- Hypo 3 — Responsive Activity
- Narrative: Possible H4 consolidation would force to trade between current and VAL levels.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1889.101
- D1-C‑S 1855.789
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 1838.170
- H4-C‑D 1836.705 BASE
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING